Rajdeep Sardesai's column: Why is Nitish Kumar still 'essential' for BJP?

Bihar is compulsive, Nitish Kumar is necessary' — this slogan I first heard outside the BJP office in 2017, when Nitish decided to switch sides 'countlessly' times. He left Lalu and rejoined the Narendra Modi-led BJP and became the Chief Minister of Bihar. This return was not driven by the sudden awakening of an old friendship, but by political expediency. Eight years later, not much has changed. The BJP has no special affection for Nitish, who challenged Modi's prime ministerial bid in 2013. But as the face of the NDA, he has no choice either. At the same time, at the last stage of his political innings, the elderly and unhealthy Nitish also has no option but to accept the role of a subordinate in the Delhi court. Bihar is still not able to free itself from the legacy of backward caste vote bank politics. Lalu, who was once a charismatic leader, is now so physically weak that he is not even able to campaign for the election. He has handed over the reins of the party to son Tejashwi, who is energetic but lacks the typical rustic style of his father. Nitish, perhaps the most sophisticated product of the JP movement, is also ill and suffering from a disease that weakens the mind more than the body. The BJP has a leader like Modi at the Centre, but it does not have a leader in the state who wields influence across the state. The Congress is organisationally weak and cannot become strong overnight. Then there's Prashant Kishor, an anti-system challenger but still finding his place in Bihar's complex caste-matrix. So we return to the same question: Why is Nitish Kumar — who has been sworn in a record nine times — still considered necessary? Five years ago, the BJP tried to reduce Nitish's stature by putting Chirag Paswan forward and targeting the JD(U) vote bank. This strategy also worked. The JD(U) got 43 seats and the BJP got 74 seats. But despite this, the BJP showed hesitation in replacing Nitish Kumar as its chief minister. Nitish sensed this power game of the BJP. He feared that his party, which was weakening like the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, would also be broken by the BJP, so he switched sides and joined the India alliance. When he felt that India would not be able to strengthen his national ambition, he came back to the NDA before the 2024 general elections. The BJP has been successful in imposing its terms on allies in many other states, but it has not been able to do so on Nitish. The first reason for this is that unlike other states of the Hindi belt, the BJP has not been able to create any credible leadership of its own for the backward castes in Bihar. The past of dominance of upper castes still hovers over the party. Despite the Modi wave in 2015, the BJP could not stand up to the common caste equation of Lalu-Nitish in Bihar. Secondly, the BJP's poor performance in the general elections means that the party will have to accommodate every one of its allies. In such a situation, the BJP cannot afford to separate Nitish from itself. Finally, the BJP knows that Nitish still has a strong double-digit vote-share. Even a small vote share can make a big difference in Bihar's competitive coalition politics. In the 2020 elections, JD(U) got a decisive 15 percent of the votes. In almost every election since 2005, the two major groups — women and the most backward castes — have generally been in support of Nitish. The schoolgirl who would have received a bicycle at the hands of Nitish, who took power for the first time in 2005, is now an adult voter. Even today, she is a major beneficiary of the government's welfare schemes. This is what makes Nitish indispensable in any power system in Bihar. It is possible that in the near future, the BJP may carry out an Eknath Shinde-style coup in Bihar as well, but for now, Nitish remains a 'necessary compulsion' for the BJP. The BJP knows that Nitish still has a strong vote-share of double digits. Even a small vote share can make a big difference in Bihar's competitive coalition politics. In 2020, JD(U) got a decisive 15% of the votes. (These are the author's own views)