Sanjay Kumar's column: Regional parties are maintaining their support base in the states

The defeat of the TMC in Bengal and the subsequent defection of many parties had raised questions about the relevance of regional parties. It is true that the regional parties are facing a crisis at the moment, but it is too early to assume that they are out of importance. The defeat of parties like the TMC in Bengal or the AAP in Delhi should not be seen as a permanent downfall of regional parties. In the last four Lok Sabha elections as well as in the assembly elections in various states, the vote share of national and regional parties has not changed much. It is important to note that vote share is the best indicator of a party's underlying base. Moreover, voters give more preference to regional parties in assembly elections than in Lok Sabha elections. This underscores the importance of local political identities. After the defeat in Bengal, the TMC had to face the defection of many MLAs and MPs. There was also a massive defection among AAP's Rajya Sabha MPs. NCP (SP) MPs in Maharashtra also switched sides. These developments do point to organisational weaknesses, but they cannot be seen as a sign of a decline in public support. At present, the BJP is in power in 11 states, while the Congress is in power in 3 states. Regional parties are running the government in 4 states. Apart from this, BJP-led coalition governments are in power in 10 other states-UT. In 4 of these, regional parties are key partners of the alliance, while the role of BJP is that of an ally. These are Andhra Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Puducherry. In the remaining 6, the BJP is leading the government in alliance with regional parties. These include Bihar, UP, Assam, Goa, Maharashtra and Tripura. In 3 states, the Congress is also part of the coalition government with regional parties. In Jharkhand, the Congress is the junior alliance partner of JMM and in Jammu and Kashmir, it is the National Conference. In Kerala, the Congress is leading a coalition government with other regional parties. An analysis of the votes polled by various parties during the last four Lok Sabha elections shows that the combined vote share of the national parties has been between 60.04% and 68.15% during this period. That means their overall electoral support has been relatively stable. The lowest combined vote share of national parties was recorded in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, when they got 60.04% of the total votes. At the same time, he got the highest 68.15% votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Importantly, the 2014 election shows that vote share and election results are not always commensurate with each other in India's 'first-past-the-post' electoral system. In the last four Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won a decisive majority and formed the government at the Centre despite the combined vote share of national parties being the lowest in 2014. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, all national parties together received 63.59% of the votes, while in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the combined vote share of all national parties stood at 62.72%. This indicates that their overall presence in electoral politics remains broadly stable. On the other hand, regional parties have consistently secured nearly one-third of the votes in the Lok Sabha elections, though there have been some fluctuations in different elections. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, all regional parties together got 31.22% votes, while in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the combined vote-share of regional parties was 35.86%. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all regional parties together received 33.52% of the votes. The only exception was the 2019 election, when the combined vote share of regional parties was 28.1%. These figures indicate that despite electoral setbacks in some states, regional parties are maintaining substantial support at the national level and in many states. Their electoral performance may fluctuate, but we should not forget that if the DMK suffered a loss in Tamil Nadu, it was not a national party but another regional party, the TVK. This shows that the nature of electoral competition in many states is still largely determined by regional political forces. (These are the author's own views)