India’s steel market heads for a supply squeeze

India’s steel sector is poised for a tightening supply-demand balance, with inventories expected to decline and prices to find support. Aditya Birla Money estimates steel consumption will rise to 229.2 million tonnes by FY30, outpacing production of 218.6 million tonnes. The resulting deficit could draw down inventories despite expanding capacity. Historically, domestic HRC prices have moved in tandem with inventory cycles, and recent stock depletion alongside price recovery points to firmer market conditions. Meanwhile, trade barriers across the US, Europe and UK are curbing import while India’s import restrictions support domestic pricing. Robust infrastructure-led demand adds to this favourable outlook for producers.