Sheila Bhatt's column: Keep an eye on South politics too

A new chapter of regional politics is going to begin in Tamil Nadu, which will affect national politics. Experts believe that after decades, there may be a triangular contest in Tamil Nadu. Even more surprising is that there are also possibilities of a hung assembly this time. The fundamental dimensions of politics are changing in this important state of South India. This time the elections are not just about Hindi versus Tamil and North versus South. These elections will not only protect Tamil culture. They will change the mood of Tamil Nadu. The entire leaves are not yet open in this bet. But the combat has become very interesting. The ruling DMK has 133 seats in the 234-member Assembly. All other parties are making such a front against DMK Chief Minister MK Stalin that this election has become an election for all of them to defeat the DMK as a whole. In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK has been in the fray against the DMK for many years. The contest has been between these two Dravidian parties. Personality-cult based politics has been the hallmark of Tamil Nadu. The stalwarts like Annadurai, MG Ramachandran, Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa were made their own by the Tamil people with indescribable reverence. But today, there is no established leader equal to him in Tamil Nadu. A leader who is bigger than his own side and also a strong custodian of Tamil culture. Especially after Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK is left with no veteran leader of his stature and the differences among the senior leaders of the party have increased a lot. Due to this, they are not able to take proper advantage of the atmosphere being created against the DMK. The BJP — which is trying to put down roots in Dravidian land — also has neither charismatic leaders nor Tamil-speaking stalwarts who understand Dravidian strategy. Perhaps they do not even need a personality whose stature is bigger than the party and its ideology. The BJP is fighting this election with only one motive — to defeat the DMK come what may. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress has been growing completely in the shadow of the DMK. It won nine seats from Tamil Nadu in the Lok Sabha elections. If the DMK loses in Tamil Nadu, the Congress's position at the Centre today will be even weaker. The DMK has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha. They strongly oppose the Modi government on every issue. Today, there are two strong anti-BJP strongholds in the country — one in Mamata Banerjee's Bengal and one in Stalin's Tamil Nadu. The BJP's organisation in Tamil Nadu is not one that can match the DMK. It is also true that the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections are not an election to be fought under the leadership of the BJP. Amit Shah is the key strategist in this election, who has had some success in building an effective alliance against the DMK. In April 2025, the BJP and the AIADMK formed an alliance to contest the Tamil Nadu elections. In the last three months, Amit Shah and in-charge Piyush Goyal have convinced the Gounder and Vaniar caste to join the NDA. For the last two years, the DMK's campaign has also been mainly against the ideology of the BJP. Stalin has put forward his son Udhayanidhi keeping the future in mind. Today, Udhayanidhi is the main campaigner for DMK's anti-BJP politics. Stalin is surrounded by many troubles. Allegations of serious corruption, the pledge to make son Udhayanidhi his heir and the deteriorating law and order situation in the state are creating an atmosphere against the DMK. Due to the changing ground reality, the Congress, which has been an ally of DMK this time, is also thinking of contesting separately from DMK by showing courage. But the chances of that happening are very low. But if the Tamil Nadu election is going to be unprecedented, then it is neither Stalin nor the Leader of the Opposition Palaniswami (EPS) who is going to be the reason for it. In fact, Tamil superstar Vijay has shaken everyone. Several surveys have come out, in which about 25% of the people are liking Vijay. Even if these people vote for Vijay's TVK-Tamilga Vetri Kazhagam party, no one can predict the election results. There are some people in the Congress who are thinking that if Vijay agrees to join them, it will be difficult for the DMK to get 20 seats. But victory is not going to come easily in anyone's hands. He has great confidence. There's also a lot of money. He is the most popular superstar in today's day. They don't meet the leaders of the other side quickly. They also do not react quickly to events. It does not have enough candidates to fight across Tamil Nadu. But due to the deteriorating situation among the people, there is so much anger that they are tying their hopes with victory. Behind the victory is the support of Dalits, women and youth. In fact, people are so tired of both the Dravidian parties that it should not be surprising if the election that was against the DMK creates an atmosphere of victory by the time polling day comes. DMK leaders criticize Vijay for not making any specific statement against the BJP. The censor board has stopped his expensive film, yet he could not speak against the BJP. For this reason, the market of rumours is also hot that whether the BJP is playing the game against the DMK? The continuous surveys that are being conducted are enough to confuse everyone. Experts also say that Vijay will harm both the DMK and the AIADMK. In that case, the DMK will try its best to win the election even by a small margin, as Vijay's entry is likely to divide the anti-DMK votes. At the same time, the BJP will try to have a hung assembly in Tamil Nadu, in which the BJP can also play a role under the NDA in forming or running the government. A new triangular struggle is emerging in Dravidian politics. In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK has been in the fray against the DMK for many years. The contest is between these two Dravidian parties. But today they do not have popular leaders. He is facing a tough challenge from Vijay. The BJP-Congress are eyeing these equations. (These are the author's own views)