Sayyid Ata Hasnain's column: Has a Sunni coalition been formed against Shiite Iran?

The agreement between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in Mecca is being described as "Muslim NATO". The agreement states that an attack on one will be considered as an attack on all three. It is similar to NATO's Article 5, but it is not clear what kind of military assistance will be given after the attack. This ambiguity may have been deliberately kept. The strategic strength of these three countries is different. Saudi Arabia's strength is wealth, oil and its strategic geographical location. Pakistan is the only nuclear-weapon state in the Muslim world. Türkiye has a powerful military and an advanced defense industry. The reasons for the agreement of the three are also different. Saudi Arabia wants security assurances. Pakistan wants a higher status in strategic status. Türkiye wants to increase strategic influence. Recent developments have revealed threats to Saudi Arabia. In such a situation, this agreement is like an additional safety net for him. Pakistan seems to get the biggest immediate benefit from this agreement. Its approach to security revolves around India, Afghanistan, terrorism and internal challenges. The agreement gives it a role in a comprehensive security architecture beyond South Asia. But if Iran attacks Saudi Arabia, will Pakistan join the war under the agreement? If Pakistan's interests are linked to both Saudi Arabia and Iran, then it will not be easy for it to choose one against the other. That is, this agreement increases Pakistan's relevance as well as its dilemma. Türkiye maintains relations with NATO, Russia, Iran, Gulf countries, Pakistan, Central Asia. But it also has important interests in Syria, Iraq, the Caucasus region, where it needs reconciliation with Iran. What will Türkiye do if Iran attacks Saudi Arabia? Will it help in providing intelligence, air defense, naval support, fighter jets, or will it take direct military action against Iran? At the same time, if Turkey clashes with Iran over Syria or Iraq, will Saudi Arabia and Pakistan also go to war? Alliances deter aggression, but they can also create a confusing situation for each other. Türkiye's NATO membership further complicates the equation. Therefore, a provision like Article 5 may have been deliberately kept vague. That is, a sign of strong resistance to attack, but not necessarily an obligation to enter into battle. A question also arises, is this a Sunni agreement against Iran? Its communal arithmetic cannot be ignored. All three are Sunni-majority countries and Iran is a major Shiite power, yet to say so would be a simplistic conclusion. The deal is officially defensive and Saudi Arabia has also worked to improve relations with Iran. Yet Iran will be the most important external power to keep an eye on the deal. The US may also consider it a good move that regional partners are taking more responsibility for security. The Accords of Mecca do not necessarily end the Abraham Accords either. This gives Saudi Arabia another strategic option and enhances its bargaining power. It can increase defense cooperation with Türkiye and Pakistan while maintaining its defense relations with the US and also keep open the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel. The sectarian arithmetic of the Mecca Agreement cannot be ignored. The Saudi, Tturkia and Pakistan are all Sunni-majority countries and Iran is a major Shiite power. Still, it would probably be a simplistic conclusion to say so. (These are the author's own views)