Shekhar Gupta's column: We should not fall into the trap of 'food versus fuel'

The BJP's loyal vote bank is angry today about the adulteration of ethanol in petrol. In the past months, at airports, at weddings, in hotel lobbies, as guests and taxi drivers, I met many people who looked angry. Their anger was that how can they forcibly give us ethanol mixed petrol (EBP)? Broadly, the questions of these people are, what will we benefit from this? We will pay the same price, but we will get less mileage. With this, the engine of the vehicle will also be damaged, while we will be paying EMIs regularly. And how will this benefit the country? If there will be any benefit, why are we not being told? Why are we not being given a chance to make a choice? We are being told to use it or walk. Who benefits from our suffering? These are valid and important questions and the government should have answers to them. Surprisingly, it does not seem to care about taking the voters into confidence. No one tried to prepare consumers for this change earlier. Now an attempt is being made to count the benefits by putting ministers in front of them. But these things are not having any effect. Since 2014, the middle class has been a strong vote bank of the BJP. It has been so loyal to it that it voted for it despite the rise in fuel prices. It also forgave the government when it took advantage of itself by increasing excise duty despite the fall in the price of crude oil. That splinter benefit was used to distribute free food grains and other direct benefits among the poor. I call it an 'attempt to become Robin Hood' — collect from the middle class, distribute it among the poor and don't care about the rich. If the 'secular' parties consider the Muslim vote as a sure thing for themselves, then the BJP can also consider the vast middle class as sure of itself. This class accepted the high fuel prices because it believes in the slogan of Hindutva nationalism. But these voters are angry today. This is surprising for a party that prides itself on the fact that its leaders have the ability to make the voters accept the toughest decisions, be it demonetisation or the decision to impose a sudden lockdown across the country during Covid. But in the case of 'EBP', there was no call to action. It seems that someone suddenly realized something and in 2013-14, the 1.56 per cent adulteration of petrol was quietly increased to 20 per cent and now there is talk of making it 30 per cent. But there are two problems. One is that the buyers are angry and their numbers are large. The second is that there is not much ethanol available. It is not even enough to maintain this adulteration ratio unless you put a deep hand in the safe stock of rice. Moreover, people will not accept any more adulteration. On paper, the use of desi ethanol instead of imported ethanol seems fine, but you do not have a huge source of ethanol to start drilling and extracting it. Your farmers will have to cultivate that source – sugarcane, maize or paddy. The idea of using it came when sugar surplus production was taking place. The sugar mills could recover their money and pay the dues of the farmers. It was so encouraging that sugar mills were allowed to divert sugarcane juice for production of ethanol. There was plenty of sugar in the market. But no one accounted for the uncertainties associated with agriculture, such as grain mandis, the uncertainty of the monsoon, pest attacks. In a single year, sugarcane went from surplus to scarcity. The season began with a shortfall of 5 million tonnes of sugar stocks, while the base was 34.3 metric tonnes, which has now fallen to 28 metric tonnes. As a result, the price of sugar has increased by about 50 per cent. As expected, the old story is repeated: control stocks, attack 'hoarding and profiteering', ban exports and make way for duty-free imports. But with the festive season approaching, can sugar be allowed to become costlier? Ethanol procurement continued to rise exponentially — from 38 crore litres in 2013-14 to 1,200 crore litres this year. Refineries turned to maize. Then the price of maize also increased by about 50 percent. Due to this, the prices of poultry and meat also increase, because they want maize. Now the hand is being extended towards paddy. First came the number of broken rice and then surplus rice. This year, 72 lakh tonnes of rice was allocated for fuel at half the market price. The idea of 'EBP' may be good, but it is based on agriculture, so it should have been prepared for three-four years before implementing it. Farmers should have been prepared to change the crop of their choice. Along with creating a market for them, it should have been arranged that there is no shortage of essentials and we do not fall into the trap of 'food versus fuel'. And finally, consumers would have been persuaded to use adulterated petrol. But today these are the results — there is a shortage of sugar, the foreign exchange situation is bad, inflation is up while festivals are approaching, and you are allocating the buffer stock of rice at half the price of EBP. In such a situation, either reduce the blending ratio to 10 per cent, or put a choice in front of the consumers. Remember, BJP loyal voters are angry! It was necessary to prepare for this... The idea of ethanol may be good, but it is based on agriculture, so preparations should have been made for three-four years before implementing it. Farmers should have been prepared to change the crop of their choice. Arrangements should have been made for them so that there is no shortage of essential things. (These are the author's own views)